The Future of the Traditional Trade in Africa, 2026

The Future of the Traditional Trade in Africa, 2026

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This report takes an in-depth look at the traditional grocery retail channel in African markets. Data includes market size, outlet universe by country, modern and traditional sales splits as well as analysis of the role of digitalisation and social commerce, and the future development of traditional retail.

Table of contents

1) What is the traditional trade?

  • Trade definitions
  • Market development characteristics
  • Traditional trade examples
  • Local names for traditional stores

2) The size of the traditional trade in Africa

  • Traditional markets in Africa by region
  • The importance of traditional trade by region
  • The largest traditional trade markets in Africa
  • Three ways to measure the market
  • The traditional trade in real terms
  • Nominal vs real growth
  • Market size and informality

3) The traditional grocery retail outlet universe in Africa

  • Key factors underlying the traditional trade
  • Distributor reach and the outlet universe
  • North Africa
  • Central Africa
  • West Africa
  • East Africa
  • Southern Africa

4) The growth of the modern grocery retail channel

  • Modern trade is concentrated in big cities
  • The gap is widest in the poorest markets
  • Income and modern trade
  • What drives the growth of modern retail?
  • The rise of discount formats

5) Digitalisation and social commerce

  • What happened to the digital disruptors?
  • Shortening and simplifying the value chain
  • B2B platforms have struggled
  • Which platforms have survived?
  • The digitalisation of payments
  • Digital payments in the traditional trade
  • Where adoption is growing
  • Mobile money: ownership vs use
  • From payments to data
  • Mobile money and credit
  • Credit for sellers and working capital
  • The role of credit for consumers
  • The rise of social media
  • TikTok selling across Africa
  • Real presence and data
  • Where the data comes from
  • Manufacturer ordering apps
  • The rise of AI

6) Key trends in the traditional trade

  • Changes in the cost of living
  • Downsizing, micro-affordability and upsizing
  • “Refill” model
  • Government regulation and intervention
  • Township expansion
  • Solarisation
  • Access to cold chain for the traditional trade
  • Market status and development
  • Key takeaways